What Polygons are Closest to HS 13?

 One inequity of school redistricting in Howard County that irritates me the most is the bias in favor of those who live closer to their school. Where I live in Elkridge, the nearest high school is 6 miles away. And yet, if there is proposal to move someone say 2 miles from their school to a different school 3 or four miles away, there will be howls of outrage. "Move someone else! You want to send us to a school that is twice as far away!" The someone else whom they want to move instead is typically unstated, but likely someone who already lives much farther away from their school than the outraged person.

It is wrong for redistricting to move those furthest from their current school to a school that is further away yet. The basic principle of equity requires that travel times for all students should be more similar than more different, so that all students and families have more similar opportunities to engage in school activities.

So with these thoughts in mind, I started wondering what polygons are closest to the quarry site for HS 13? And what is the high school population of those polygons? Will it be necessary to populate HS 13 with students who currently attend a closer school? How much could the utilization of other schools be reduced when HS 13 is populated with the students for whom it is closest?

Here are some answers as best as I can determine.

            

The high school attendance areas may be found here.

Will it be necessary to populate HS 13  with students who live closer to another school?

No. This table shows the student population by year of the polygons closest to HS 13.

	Capacity	22-23	23-24	24-25
HS 13	1658	2518	2608	2659

HS 13 has a capacity of 1658, and there are many more students than that who live closest to HS 13, now and in the future.

There is no need to send a polygon that is closer to a different school to HS 13 for HS 13 to reach full capacity.

How much can other schools' utilization be reduced by sending the closest polygons to HS 13?

This table shows the enrollment and utilization of HCPSS high schools under the current attendance areas.

	Capacity	Enrollment				Utilization
School		22-23	23-24	24-25		22-23	23-24	24-25
Howard HS	1,420	1683	1699	1700		118.52%	119.65%	119.72%
Long Reach	1,488	1810	1881	1925		121.64%	126.41%	129.37%
Mt Hebron HS	1,400	1572	1589	1637		112.29%	113.50%	116.93%
Centennial HS	1,360	1536	1546	1562		112.94%	113.68%	114.85%
Oakland Mills HS	1,400	1449	1445	1441		103.50%	103.21%	102.93%
Hammond HS	1,420	1322	1390	1437		93.10%	97.89%	101.20%
Wilde Lake HS	1,424	1294	1318	1290		90.87%	92.56%	90.59%
Atholton HS	1,460	1562	1597	1601		106.99%	109.38%	109.66%
Reservoir HS	1,551	1896	1966	1992		122.24%	126.76%	128.43%
River Hill HS	1,488	1393	1447	1406		93.62%	97.24%	94.49%
Marriotts Ridge HS	1,615	1793	1810	1854		111.02%	112.07%	114.80%
Glenelg HS	1,420	1331	1347	1346		93.73%	94.86%	94.79%
* includes 200 seat Hammond expansion to open with HS 13

This table shows the enrollment from those polygons that are not closer to HS13.

	Capacity					Utilization
School		22-23	23-24	24-25		22-23	23-24	24-25
Howard HS	1420	1652	1669	1670		116.34%	117.54%	117.61%
Long Reach	1488	1402	1453	1484		94.22%	97.65%	99.73%
Mt Hebron HS	1400	1572	1589	1637		112.29%	113.50%	116.93%
Centennial HS	1360	1536	1546	1562		112.94%	113.68%	114.85%
Oakland Mills HS	1400	1094	1073	1056		78.14%	76.64%	75.43%
Hammond HS	1420	557	593	618		39.23%	41.76%	43.52%
Wilde Lake HS	1424	1294	1318	1290		90.87%	92.56%	90.59%
Atholton HS	1460	1562	1597	1601		106.99%	109.38%	109.66%
Reservoir HS	1551	937	985	1008		60.41%	63.51%	64.99%
River Hill HS	1488	1393	1447	1406		93.62%	97.24%	94.49%
Marriotts Ridge HS	1615	1793	1810	1854		111.02%	112.07%	114.80%
Glenelg HS	1420	1331	1347	1346		93.73%	94.86%	94.79%
* includes 200 seat Hammond expansion to open with HS 13

Notes on My Approach

I measured the distance from polygons to schools by using Google Maps to route driving distance. I used the point in the polygon that I estimated to be central to the population of polygon. I assume that the entrance to HS 13 is from Route 1, and not from Mission Road.

The number of students per polygon comes from here. This data is from 2019. As near as I can determine, this is the most recent data available.

For privacy concerns, polygons with fewer than 5 students have the number of students shown as a '*'. For my calculations, I changed this to 2.

The polygon enrollment data has obvious bad data. For example, polygon 3023, next to the Savage MARC Station, contains a giant Transit Oriented Development, The Residences At Annapolis Junction. This development has over 400 units, it opened in 2017, and it's polygon shows less than 5 students at each school level in 2019 and forever after. 

My working spreadsheet to derive this information is here.